Now that the database has become large enough, it can be helpful to look more closely at the price estimates set in the guessing contest.
There are countless ways to analyze data sets, but we have chosen a simple descriptive method. The purpose is to investigate whether we can read something out of the price estimates and sentiment of the participants.
- Here is a summary of the figures from the competition.
- The average is $ 10,457
- If you correct for the biggest extremes, the average is $ 7,529
- The highest price estimate is $ 100,000
- The lowest price estimate is $ 4,300
- The vast majority have placed their bets between $ 7,000 and $ 10,000
- 9% below 7 thousand
- 25% between 7 and 8 thousand
- 29% between 8 and 9 thousand
- 22% between 9 and 10 thousand
- 15% over 10 thousand
The conclusion so far has to be that the majority is aiming for bitcoin to rise until New Year’s Eve. Another observation is that the average bets on a marginal increase. Some have put hairy bets high on the scale, but the majority are a few hundred dollars above today’s rate.
Whether this is due to an inherent optimism among the crypto people or unique insight into the market, time will tell.